What part of the business cycle do you think the U.S. is in currently?

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CindyShnaider_CFFP
CindyShnaider_CFFP Level I CAIA 2023, CFFP Faculty & Instructors Posts: 5
edited July 24 in Financial Planners Professional Community
Industry Insights.jpg

Do you think we are still in an expansion phase?

For a start, the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) sets peaks and troughs for the business cycle and the last declared peak was February 2020 and the last trough was April 2020, both declared in July of 2021!

Recessions are declared after the fact, so we feel the effects of an economic upturn and downturn long before it is declared. Recessions here are shown as the gray bands and the lines show unemployment data.

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NBER. (2024). Leadership & Governance. https://www.nber.org/about-nber/leadership-governance

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/UNEMPLOY

NBER. (2024). Leadership & Governance.

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